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post 【Warren Buffet 精彩访谈语录】

November 30th, 2008

Filed under: 卷中天地 — 野兽修行 @ 4:30 pm

收到朋友的电邮,记载了投资大师 Warren Buffet 的一些精彩语录。确实如他所言,就算你对投资毫无兴趣,也应当看看这篇文章。老人家不仅谈投资,而且对做人和价值观也有敦厚独到的见解。

A Must Read For Traders or Investors or Human……. …


I had the good fortune to attend the 2008- Berkshire Hathaway Shareholders meeting at Omaha , Nebraska a few weeks back.

It was a wonderful experience listening to and learning from the Master Investor- Warren Buffett himself and all I can say is that he stands alone as the reigning deity of financial world’s Mt Olympus!

The degree of humility and composure he exhibited, although he is the richest and most well respected human is stunning!

I tried to take some notes and would like to share with you some of the best questions and answers which came across during the conversation between we mortals and God.

Having read about him, observed him and worshipped him for a few years now, I think it is reasonable to believe that this guy is exactly what he seems: a plain-speaking, tee totalling man of uncrackable integrity who works really, really hard and sticks to his investing and management principles through boom and bust which makes him a freak of nature since he is above normal human tendencies. He is like a comet streaking through the heavens every 75 years or so.

The questions the shareholders threw at him for 7 continuous hours ranged from finances, life, religion, career, politics, sports and several other streams. And he answered everything with a Zen like calm and confidence.

Even if you are least bothered about investments and finances, I insist, Please read on.

============ ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ========= ==

What does it take to become a successful investor? Brilliance or Smartness?

Neither, Success in investing doesn’t correlate with I.Q. Once you have ordinary intelligence, what you need is the temperament to control the urges that gets other people into trouble in investing.

When do you decide to invest in a firm?

The best thing that happens to us is when a great company gets into temporary trouble. We want to buy them when they’re on the operating table. (Mr. Buffett bought Coke when it had its biggest fiasco after launching New Coke; he bought American Express when it went through a loss making phase in the early 60’s)

What do you look for in people when they come to sell their firms to you?

I don’t look for the usual credentials such as an MBA, a pedigree (Harvard, Wharton), or cash reserves or market cap of their firm. What I look for is just a passion in their eyes; I think that’s the key. A person who is hungry will always do well. I prefer it when people even after selling stay on and work for the firm; they are people who can’t wait to get off their bed to get to work. Passion is everything; there is no replacement for innate interest.


Mr. Buffett, you told us that Berkshire Hathaway has $ 45 Billion in cash. Why aren’t you investing?

Up until a few years back I had more ideas than money. Now I have more money than ideas.

When do you plan to retire?

I love my job; I love it so much that I tap dance to work. Mrs. B, the founder of Nebraska Furniture Mark worked until she was 104, she died within 6 months of her retirement, that’s a lesson to all my managers, don’t retire! I personally am going to work 6-7 years after I die, probably that’s what they mean when they say- “Thinking out of the Box”!!

Why do stock market crashes happen?

Because of human nature for greed and insecurity. The 1970s were unbelievable. The world wasn’t going to end, but businesses were being given away. Human nature has not changed. People will always behave in a manic-depressive way over time. They will offer great values to you.”

What are the things that are taught wrong in Business school and the corporate world?

I like such open ended questions, I think Business schools should refrain from teaching their wards about profit making and profit making alone, it gives a sense of 1 dimensional outlook to the young students that loss is a curse. In reality, in the corporate world, failure and loss making are inevitable. The capital market without loss is like Christianity without hell. I think they should teach the student on how to buy a business, how to value a business? Not just on how to determine the price of a business. Because price is what you pay, value is what you get.

Do you still hate Technology stocks?

With Coke I can come up with a very rational figure for the cash it will generate in the future. But with the top 10 Internet companies, how much cash will they produce over the next 25 years? If you say you don’t know, then you don’t know what it is worth and you are speculating, not investing. All I know is that I don’t know, and if I don’t know, I don’t invest.”

How to think about Investing?

The first investment primer was written by Aesop in 600 B.C. He said, ‘A bird in the hand is worth two in the bush.’ Aesop forgot to say when you get the two in the bush and what interest rates are; investing is simply figuring out your cash outlay (the bird in the hand) and comparing it to how many birds are in the bush and when you get them.”

How do you feel after donating $ 40 Billion to the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation? You are a hero to us!
I feel nothing. I haven’t sacrificed anything in life. I have had a good life. I donated after I turned 75. I think I admire those people who sacrifice their time, share their food and home, as the people to be emulated not me. Besides, what is money before a man’s life?

What do you think are the pitfalls in donation?

I have never donated a dime to churches or other such organizations; I need to believe in something before I end up doing that. I have been observing the Bill & Melinda Gates foundation for years now and I am confident they will do a fantastic job of making use of the money. I am a big believer in Outsourcing, others believed in me as an Investor and gave their hard earned money to invest. I believe in Bill Gates, he is a better donor than me.

Why do you work from Omaha and not Wall Street , New York ?

Wall Street is the only place where people alight from Rolls Royce to get advised by people who use the Public transportation system. ( ha ha !!)

You seem to be so well read, tell us how it all started.

My father was a stock broker, so we had all these financial books in our library. He introduced me to those classics and I got into them. I am lucky that my father was not a fan of Playboy! Reading is the best habit you can get. Well, you can learn from teachers too, and have mentors but there are so many constraints attached- they will talk fast, talk slow, they might talk like a pro or they might be terrible communicators. Books are a different animal altogether, I love reading! The beauty about reading and learning is that the more you learn the more you want to learn.

People who join Berkshire Hathaway seldom leave. How do you get along well with all your executives?

I try to get quality people. I always say - Hire someone in your organization who is better than you are. If you do that, you build a company of giants. If you get people worse than yourself, you build a company of dwarfs. And do not try to do everything yourself. Delegate the jobs and look out of the window. The results will come. That’s how you build institutions. It happens only when you empower others, believe in others. Iam an investor, Iam very secured at that, I have no clue how to make Coca-Cola or how to dole out credit cards (Mr. Buffett owns 8% of Coca-Cola and 13 % of American Express). I understand the wisdom of the aphorism that you cannot please all the people all the time. Of Course, you will always find qualities that you don’t like in people around you, but if you observe carefully the love of the work unites you both. There is no point in being obsessive about a bad quality in a person, whom you otherwise respect.

I am a small time businessman from Dallas , Texas , what do I need to do to hit big time?

Be patient, Achieving your financial goals and dreams will not happen overnight. As much as we would all really love to accomplish our goals in a few years, this is an ongoing process. Defining your financial goals is not a one-time task; you need to keep adding new plans at different stages in your life. We all admire the skills of Olympic ice skaters, pro golfers, and concert pianists. But do we remember that they didn’t acquire their skills overnight? They had to practice hours on end for years to achieve their dreams. The key to success is to continue learning throughout your life with a voracious appetite.

I think it is marvelous that you have had a golden run with investing, how did you do that?

My rule is to be fearful when others are greedy, and be greedy when others are fearful. Besides, I call investing the greatest job in the world because you never have to swing. You stand at the plate; the pitcher throws you General Motors at 47! U.S. Steel at 39! And nobody calls a strike on you. There’s no penalty except opportunity lost. All day you wait for the pitch you like; then when the fielders are asleep, you step up and hit it. Stay dispassionate and be patient. You’re dealing with a lot of silly people in the marketplace; it’s like a great big casino and everyone else is boozing. If you can stick with drinking Coke, you should be OK. First the crowd is boozy on optimism and buying every new issue in sight. The next moment it is boozy on pessimism, buying gold bars and predicting another Great Depression, most people get interested in stocks when everyone else is. The time to get interested is when no one else is. You can’t buy what is popular and do well.

Mr. Buffett you have seen so many crashes and recessions, your take on facing recessions and stock market crashes?

If past history was all there was to the game, the richest people would be librarians. Every scenario is different. But always remember, Tough times do not last. Tough people do.

What is the 1 biggest advice you would impart to a young investor like me?

Think for a moment that you are given a car and told this is the only car you would get for the rest of your life. Then you would make sure that you car is taken care of well, it is oiled and detailed every now and then. You would make sure that it never gets rusted, and you would garage it. Think of yourself as that car. You just get 1 body, 1 mind and 1 soul. Take care of it well. Invest in yourself that would be my advice.

You personally know many of the Financial executives who are engineers of the current turmoil in the financial world, surprisingly even after record losses, those executives receive astronomical salaries and bonuses and arrogantly declare that they deserve it, why dint you advice them from making such decisions and what’s your view on their justification for their pay?

I like sharing my ideas but don’t like imposing my ideas on anybody. It doesn’t make sense and is a waste of time. If somebody has decided that they know everything that is there to know, nobody can help them. The best way to learn and succeed is to know that we know nothing. There is an entire universe out there and still some of us think we can know everything. In the world of investing a few people after making some money tend to imagine they are invincible and great. This is the worst thing that could happen to any investor, because it surely means that the investor will end up taking unnecessary risks and end up losing everything – arrogance, ego and overconfidence are very lethal. Personally I don’t feel too comfortable with too much extravagance, because I always think like an investor. My thought process doesn’t see a lot of value in a fancy car or a designer suit. Thinking like an investor always is very important to bring in a sense of discipline and focus. Before reading balance sheets and investing you need to make sure your outlook and mindset is that of an investor. Never let ego, arrogance and over-confidence control you - not just as an investor but also as a human being. You will never have internal peace if you are unable to look at everybody around you with love, compassion and understanding. Irrespective of who the person is, he or she can teach you something you don’t know. I have learnt so much from people all around me and I wouldn’t have been able to learn all these wonderful things if I had not spoken to them with a smile. To quote Sir Isaac Newton- If I have seen farther than others, it is because I have stood on the shoulders of giants.

It was a 7 hour conversation and I could just capture some of the best questions and answers. As 37,000+ dazed, amazed and grateful shareholders trooped out of the stadium after the meeting, I found myself recalling one of my favorite quotes-

“A man has to learn that he cannot command things, but that he can command himself; that he cannot coerce the wills of others, but that he can mold and master his own will: and things serve him who serves truth; people seek guidance of him who is master of himself”.

post 【成败难定,宠辱不惊】

November 29th, 2008

Filed under: 信步商道 — 野兽修行 @ 8:56 pm

今早去机场送两位 partners。回来的路上,我在想,当年 Genknight 的黄金一代有许多如今都混出或大或小的名堂了。Kurt Ring 曾经对 Uma 笑谑:你这帮娃娃军,假以一个三年的时间,将会是非常 amazing 的团队。现在还不行。

如今看来,Kurt Ring 没算错。只可惜 Uma 没能等到这一天。

失败了,会沮丧;胜利了,会狂喜。这是人之常情。

不过经历的成败多了,我们逐渐学会以平常心看待胜负结果。这不仅仅是心态逐渐沉稳,更是因为我们开始明白眼前一时的胜负不一定意味着未来实际的胜负。

你在 A 公司被政治斗争干掉,黯然出局。对手风光上位,你被迫自立门户开创新世界。时移世易,几年后你的事业越做越大,对手的公司所处的行业却被趋势渐渐淘汰以致式微,要脱身却又被一屁股债和责任缠身。往回头看,当初的出局实际上是老天爷帮你从一个夕阳行业移身去另一个新兴行业。

曹操初为官,执法严明,被朝廷政敌四处调动,被迫退隐田园读书,从政之路失败;后来独身行刺董卓,又失败,被迫仓惶出逃;其后联合关东联军讨伐董卓,因各路联军按兵不动,得不到有力支援,又失败。但是这三次失败,却为他后来的成功铺了最顺畅的路,因为它们为曹操的名字镀上正义的颜色,因此在后来的人才和形势的争夺中给了曹操莫大的便宜。三国史中有一件事素来不被史学家重视,往往被一句带过,那就是济北相鲍信等迎曹操任兖州牧。就是这件事故让曹操从此有了一块自己的根据地 …… 在乱世,有自己的根据地是很重要很重要的事。而鲍信迎曹操,正是因为曹操正义的名声所故。

于是我们慢慢达到所谓宠辱不惊的境界。这不仅仅是因为我们有过人的修养,更是因为被胜负来回拉扯磨练出来的一份明白。

一份胜不喜,败却欣然的明白。

post 【极速、快感、存在】

November 26th, 2008

Filed under: 听俺胡侃 — 野兽修行 @ 6:40 pm

忘了是谁这样说过:在我没有亲身体验一样事情之前,我不会随便批评那样事情。在我批评裸体主义者之前,我会至少试着赤脚在户外行走。

所以,在我们鄙视和批判 Mat Rempit (大马的飙车族,主要由马来青年组成)之前,不妨也先尝试极速驾驶,看看到底是什么让这些飙车族如此迷恋那种群起呼啸的精神快感。

这是今天早上我在开着重金属音乐,大力踩着油门的时候,脑海里在想的东西。在很high的音乐里极速移动的时候,确实有一种微妙的快感,会让人深深着迷。我想,或许是因为那份快感,让我们能感受到自己的存在吧。

是的,感受到自己的存在。

师父曾经问过一个问题:为什么人们会为性爱深深着迷?

我们说了几个不同的答案,师父都摇头不语。这时候有一位人到中年的学员说:In Control? 师父击掌叹曰:你是真正成熟的男人!

我既不成熟又还是处男(哈哈),不太能赞同师父的解答。依我的观察和体悟,我们会为性爱着迷,表面上看是着迷于那份快感;实际上,我们真正着迷的是处于那种快感时,我们比较真实地感受到自己的存在。

所以有修炼者说过,当我们处于性高潮的时候,是我们的精神状态最接近天堂的时刻。

你会问:这什么意思?难道平时我们不知道自己的存在吗?

是的,亲爱的,绝大多数人在绝大多数时候其实不太能确定自己的存在,并且为此感到惶恐。于是我们努力做许多事,尝试证明自己其实存在。

有些人沉迷于性爱游戏,那是在快感上感受到自己精神的存在;有些人努力拼搏事业,那是在成就感中感受到自己价值的存在;有些人热衷成名,那是在掌声和名气中感受到自己名字这个标签的存在;有些人不断与天斗与地斗与人斗其乐无穷,那是在斗跨斗臭敌人的胜利中感受到自己实力的存在。

是的,亲爱的,我们都只是卑微的、仅仅想要证明自己存在的可怜虫。

post 【岁月静好,人世惊扰】

November 25th, 2008

Filed under: 但凡走过 — 野兽修行 @ 3:20 am

朋友心爱的男人因为意外去世了,悲痛欲绝。M 很为她担心,睡不着,问我怎么办好。我淡淡地回复:我们做朋友的能做的就是在一旁关心和支持她。其余的,让时间为她治疗吧。

朋友 H 和爱情长跑几年的女友分手了,我也只简短地传了一句话过去:让时间带你走出来。

曾经,我们也悲痛欲绝;曾经,我们也灰暗无边;曾经,我们以为永远都走不出来了。

然后,一段时间过去了。然后,又一段时间过去了。然后,你突然发觉,事情过去了,你走出来了。

然后,你会知道,悲痛是真实的;你也会知道,悲痛终究会过去也是必然的。于是下一次的悲痛再来时,你不需要关怀,不需要慰问。你只是静静地坐在那里,等待它过去。

时间很残酷,我们也是。所以我们才能继续走下去。

最近从敏敏那里看到一句话,很喜欢它的意境:岁月静好,人世惊扰。

任人世如何纷纷扰扰,岁月只是静静地在流逝。当你假装天神从虚空俯视这一切时,那份静谧,竟然如此美好。

post 【富贵车道】

November 20th, 2008

Filed under: 听俺胡侃 — 野兽修行 @ 7:11 pm

我还记得,人生第一句学到的谚语,是二年级时老师教的:一寸光阴一寸金,寸金难买寸光阴。

在城中驾驶,突然想到:发明这句谚语的人,一定没有在交通拥挤的城市里生活。哦不,我纠正,他一定没有在拥有高速公路收费站又交通拥挤的城市里生活。

从前读书的时候,自己养自己,口袋里没有多少钱。为了省车油,钻研出所有能避开收费站的道路。(另加一句,我甚至能在收费泊车区林立的市区里找到不用付钱的泊车位。哇哈哈。)同学朋友要进城的时候,总是会来找我画地图。

出来做生意,想法开始改变了。困在车龙里,一天能见到三个不同地区的客户已经算很不错了。这时候,时间就是金钱。

于是碰上塞车时,车头一扭,转进层层收费站的高速大道,一路通常无阻直达目的地,既能省下更多的时间做更有价值的事,又可以保持好心情对待人事物。虽然充值 Touch & Go 的时候有心在滴血的感觉,但是还是心甘情愿的付了。

有时候,看着两条并行的公路,一条是车辆“空廖廖”的昂贵收费大道,一条是挤满绵羊的万车灯火,心里还是会有点不平衡的:他妈的,这些收费大道根本是给有钱人专用的富贵车道嘛。

谁说寸金难买寸光阴?寸金简直可以买整箩的光阴!

post 【随想:实 vs 虚】

November 18th, 2008

Filed under: 信步商道 — 野兽修行 @ 11:32 pm

既玩实的,也玩虚的。

玩实的,才走得动;玩虚的,才走得远。

post 【野兽寓言:文人之争】

November 17th, 2008

Filed under: 听俺胡侃 — 野兽修行 @ 6:35 pm

森林里,花鹿和山羊在激烈地辩论:到底是儒学还是法学更适合塑造一个理想的森林社会?

经过漫长的交锋和佐证,最终由打着儒学旗帜的花鹿胜出。在一旁围观的小白兔、小青蛙们顿时掌声如雷,一致推举花鹿为森林的精神文明领袖。

这时,在一旁潜伏已久的狮子突然扑出来,将花鹿按在地上先鸡奸一轮,然后再把它吃掉,然后剔着牙自言自语:“唔,儒学这个玩意听起来不错。好吧,以后俺就以儒学这套东西来统治森林。”

于是,被先奸后噬的花鹿从此成了森林文明的开创者。

而狮子,继续舒服地追杀猎食着花鹿、山羊、小白兔等有文化水准的动物。

post 【Quantum of Solace】

November 17th, 2008

Filed under: 面谱背后 — 野兽修行 @ 3:48 am

James Bond 电影一向来都只是我活动眼球神经的选择,基本上属于通常会看但不是非看不可的类型,因此对它的剧本和情节自然没有太大的期待和幻想。

这一集基本上也不例外。不过它有一小段情节却让我轻轻击了一下掌。

Bond 的好友 Mathis 在街头被警察射杀后,Bond 将他像野狗死尸般丢进垃圾堆里,然后把他皮夹里的钱扒出来,扮成好像宵小谋财害命。Camille 在一旁有点惊讶地问:“这就是你对待朋友的方式?”

Bond 很沉重、但很酷地回答:“他不会介意的。”

这一句简洁有力的回答,既表现出两个男人之间肝胆相照的意味,又充分体现了一个大丈夫看待生死的潇洒。

这种精神,比 Bond 努力地在干那些漂亮的邦女郎过瘾得多了。

post 【寸进】

November 14th, 2008

Filed under: 但凡走过 — 野兽修行 @ 5:04 pm

偶尔会看到一些年纪轻轻的后进,见识脱俗非凡、文章精辟独到,禁不住诧叹他们怎么能这么年轻就有这么高的造诣,同时唉叹自己的时间是不是都活在狗的身上了。

我们似乎忘了,自己也曾被誉为才华横溢的青年才俊。

至于后来为什么好像没什么长进,可能有几个原因:

一、这些后进确实天生才赋,悟性极高。这个没办法怨,和天才比较只会人比人气死人。

二、自己心中的那杯水逐渐满了,越来越难装进更多的东西。

而我觉得更值得玩味的是第三个原因,那就是见识这种东西进步到一个程度,它的 marginal utility 会越来越小,每往前跨出一小步,都要费更大的功夫和洗练。所以到某个时候,我们和后来者的差异几不可察。

要看起来见识非凡其实不难,都说天下文章一大抄,见识这个玩意何尝不是如此。只要多读几本书,说起话来自然就仿佛人模人样了。但是这个见识,是鹦鹉学舌的见识,再怎么细致逼真,终究不是自己的功夫。

而从这以后,每一寸的进步都要靠人生经验的积累和折射了。这每一寸的进步,才是真正意义上的进步。那之间的转折差异,虽然不怎么明显,但是每一步都是实实在在的烙印。

而你会恍然大悟,人生的成长才正要开始。

post 【杂想:火车和狗】

November 9th, 2008

Filed under: 但凡走过 — 野兽修行 @ 3:19 pm

我曾经从 Jose Morinho 口中知晓成大事者不谋与众的传统格言版:

“火车开过来了,狗儿拼命地冲着火车吠;你看看那条狗还在吠,火车却早已跑得老远去了。”

这番话说得很大气,大丈夫安身立命自当如此。喜欢与人纠缠鸡毛蒜皮者必然碌碌无为。

(岔开一下,这句话在陈文茜等人耳中成了对政治现实的悲情无奈。因为无论她们如何怒吼,残酷的政治现实总是不需要理会她们。)

后来我有机会接触一些人,才知道在同样的场景中,那些狗儿们是怎么想的。

它们是这样自鸣得意的:

“看!火车那怪物来了!快,吠它!吠它!哈哈哈 ……. 看吧,它溜了。我就说这个怪物怕了我们。”

我坐在火车上,回头朝它们淡淡地笑了笑,转回头,继续望回前方的远景。

火车的笛声逐渐远去。

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